Notes that are constantly being updated. Fragments of thought, observations on the markets and reflections that, at times, step away from the screen to find a place in real life.
Notes and reflections
Uncertainty makes us more cautious, more curious and more willing to correct ourselves.
One of the biggest challenges in solving a problem is finding a solution that does not create new ones.
Trading is a job, and like many other professions, it requires dedication and professionalism. The problem is that many people lack the patience to tackle the learning curve properly.
Trading systems are there to serve us, it is not the trader who should be serving them. They must adapt to us, not the other way round. First we set our parameters, then we look at their statistics. The systems have nothing to lose, we do.
Without in-depth study and sustained effort, the chances of achieving tangible results are virtually nil. Serious and sustained commitment does not guarantee success: it simply increases the likelihood of achieving it. The aim is not to establish a direct link between commitment and results, but to lay solid foundations so that one is ready when opportunities arise. Commitment is a necessary condition for success, but it is not sufficient to determine it.
Many people are attracted to trading because of the independence it can offer, but end up being addicted to the noise.
All we can do is work hard to ensure we are prepared, so that the financial results are consistent with initial expectations. The rest is just noise.
Many traders waste time looking for ‘the right way’ to do things, but that way simply does not exist. Instead, there are numerous wrong choices that almost inevitably lead to ruin, while there is no path that guarantees a certain profit. There is nothing wrong with trying to learn on your own or paying for educational content and the experiences of others, as long as you do so seriously. This step allows you, thanks to the feedback you receive, to discard what is not relevant to your profile and keep what offers real value.
By foregoing proper money management, it is possible to achieve a winning trade percentage close to 100%.
Unfortunately, proving that we are good and not just lucky is not so simple.
Markets are like a game of tug-of-war: the more you insist on pulling against the current, the more tired you get and the more strength you lose. Sometimes, the real skill lies in letting go just enough to go with the direction the market is pulling you in, turning that movement to your advantage.
If you use a tool that is accessible to anyone without first building your relationship with it and developing a framework to find an edge, you become the edge for others.
Before you start trading, even if only in paper mode, it is essential to put every aspect of your life that is not working properly in order. The unpredictability of trading results tends to amplify what is already unstable, and if you are not balanced, you risk creating scorched earth around you.
hen we develop a trading system we often focus on metrics, validations and rigorous methodologies: out-of-sample, walk-forward analysis, selections, optimisations and much more. All useful tools, of course. But the truth is that, on their own, they are worthless without the most important test: the impact of the system on our daily lives.
Personally, over the years I have identified only two concrete macro approaches for obtaining liquidity from the markets: 1) through hard work – through study, research, strategy building, risk management and constant commitment; 2) paying someone else to do it for us – relying on professionals or specialised services, often at high costs that are not always affordable for retailers. And rightly so: the work, skills and resources involved come at a price. If you do not recognise yourself in either of these two options, you have probably only recently entered the market or are experiencing a temporary stroke of luck: the window through which you entered is still open.
I constantly try to absorb as much as I can from those who have been sailing the seas of finance for decades. I believe they are the best sources of knowledge, because they contain valuable notions that are difficult to find elsewhere. No matter that they are experiences gained long ago, some fundamental truths remain unchanged over time.
All too often we hear people say: ‘That trader is good because they know how to read charts well.’ But this is a misleading oversimplification. A chart is merely a visual representation of the past, nothing more. And the truth is that we can interpret it however we see fit. This shows that the chart does not contain an objective truth, but only possible interpretations.
You can very well lose money even with a good strategy. If we take a lion and throw him into the sea, he becomes a victim before the sardines even become one. But he is not to be denigrated, he remains the king of the forest.
Losses are part of the game. They are proof that I am operational, immersed in the market. They are not a mistake to hide, but the price to pay for trying to capture a previously built positive expectation.